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European shares retrace some of Tuesday gains

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Fears over the outcome of crucial Greek debt restructuring talks pulled the euro off its recent highs and put share markets on the retreat on Wednesday, overshadowing signals this week that the global economy may not slow as much as feared.

International creditors are set to meet the Greek government later on Wednesday to resume talks that broke down last week over the interest rate Greece will offer on new bonds and a plan to enforce private investor losses.

A deal with the private sector is vital to cash-strapped Athens if it is to gain its next batch of international aid and avoid going bankrupt when 14.5 billion euros ($18.5 billion) of bond redemptions fall due in late March.

"Greek bond negotiations could trigger more euro weakness as they have to close a deal soon, before Greek debt repayments are due in March," Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm said.

The euro traded around $1.2755, slightly up on the day but below a session high of $1.2808 and in range of the $1.2624 low hit on Friday, its weakest rate since last August.

Analysts said European share markets were still looking for reasons to go higher after economic data from China and Germany on Tuesday encouraged hopes that the outlook was improving and prodded shares to 5-1/2-month highs.

"Global stocks are still over sold and have room to grow on further good news," said Tom Elliott, global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

The concern over the euro zone's debt crisis kept the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares in negative territory on Wednesday, however, down about 0.6 percent at 1,028.35 points.

 

European elders call for solution to crisis

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A group of European elder statesmen has urged euro zone governments to resolve the financial crisis, warning that it risks destroying the global financial system.

They called for a legally binding agreement to establish a common treasury, reinforce common supervision and regulation and deliver a growth strategy.

"The euro is far from perfect, as this crisis has revealed," they wrote in a letter to the Financial Times.

"But the answer is to fix its faults rather than allowing it to undermine and perhaps destroy the global financial system," it added.

The 17 signatories included former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, ex-Belgian premiers Jean-Luc Dehaene and Guy Verhofstadt, former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer, recent French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner and former Spanish economy minister and European monetary affairs commissioner Pedro Solbes, as well as investor George Soros. more

 

Euro holds above 7-mth lows after sudden rebound overnight

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The euro held firm on Tuesday after a choppy session overnight saw a wave of short-covering lift it by more than two cents on hopes that China will bolster Italy by buying its bonds, but traders found few reasons to stay upbeat about the currency.

The euro was last down 0.1 percent at $1.3670 , having jumped off an overnight low around $1.3495 after the Financial Times reported that Italy had asked China to make "significant" purchases of Italian debt.

The downside trend, however, stayed intact as markets come to grips with the prospect of a Greek debt default after senior German politicians started talking openly about it and a European Central Bank official quit amid policy disputes.

"All eyes are squarely on that seven-month low around $1.35 hit overnight," said Koji Fukaya, director of global foreign exchange research at Credit Suisse Securities in Tokyo.

"The downtrend in the euro will surely continue, but my sense is that unless the Italian bond auction goes extremely badly, this level may hold today," he said.

Italy is offering up to 7 billion euros of new long-term paper later in the day, with the auction in focus after the previous long-term sale drew tepid demand and as the spread of Italian bond yields over German Bunds rose to about 380 basis points, close to a peak near 400 basis points hit in August.

Markets are also bracing for a possible ratings downgrade on France's top banks, as well as an Italian sovereign rating cut. Moody's warned on June 17 that it may cut Italy's credit ratings in the next 90 days.

Chart-wise, the euro looks heavy, after a short-covering rally stalled ahead of the top on the weekly Ichimoku cloud at $1.3705 and the 100-week moving average at $1.3739.

"Having failed to bounce back above $1.37, the euro has become extremely vulnerable on the charts. I wouldn't get my hopes up for the auction -- the euro is still a sell," said a trader for a Japanese bank who spoke on condition of anonymity.

But the trader also said that as the euro is oversold in the short term, it may find some immediate support. Other traders added that the potential euro slump will likely be bumpy and peppered with short-covering rallies like the one seen on Monday.

The common currency has already fallen about nine cents, or 6 percent, in two weeks from a high around $1.4548 hit on Aug. 29.

It is now trading on the verge of the lower Bollinger Band, now at $1.3646, and its 14-day relative strength index is hovering around the 30 mark, which is considered to be oversold territory, for the first time in more than nine months.

EURO/YEN UNDER PRESSURE

Against the yen, the euro fell 0.2 percent to 105.31 yen , but was off a 10-year trough plumbed on Monday at 103.90 yen.

Traders said that the sharp fall through 105.00 and 104.00 in euro/yen overnight has knocked out some Japanese exporter hedges, and that heading into the fiscal half-year end at the end of September they may have to re-sell the common currency.

Risk reversals also showed increasing demand for bets on a lower euro, with the 25 delta one-month euro/yen risk reversal rising to levels not seen in over a year, trading around 4.4 in favour of euro puts. more

 

Euro debt fears hit euro, bonds and stocks

July 2011

The euro strengthened on Tuesday as debt yields of some peripheral euro zone countries retreated ahead of an EU summit later this week on expectations a solution to Greece's debt problem may be reached.

 Traders said official Asian and Russian names bought the euro as yields on Italian and Spanish government bonds eased slightly following a surge higher in the past week on concern the debt crisis is deepening.

 The dollar briefly recovered against the yen after a government report showed U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in June to touch a six-month high and permits for future construction unexpectedly increased.

 It then fell back as some investors said that one monthly number, however positive and above the consensus, does not make for an improving trend in the nation's housing market. That market remains mired down with foreclosures and a huge inventory of unsold homes.

 "There is some lightening of short positions ahead of (the summit) on the risk there could be some sort of agreement reached," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. "But an agreement on Thursday could include some form of Greek default, which to me is not necessarily a positive outcome for the euro." more

 

 

 

Euro debt fears hit euro, bonds and stocks

July 2011

Investors dumped the euro, peripheral euro zone government debt and European shares on Tuesday as officials struggled to contain fears that the euro zone debt crisis was spreading to Italy and Spain.         

 In a bid to keep Italy and Spain from the same fate as Greece, Portugal and Ireland, euro zone finance ministers promised on Monday cheaper loans, longer maturities and a more flexible rescue fund.  

 But they said new measures would be announced "shortly" without setting a deadline, and for the first time declined to rule out the possibility of a selective default by Greece to make its debt mountain more sustainable.            

 Markets came under further pressure after International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde failed to comment specifically on resolving Greece's debt problems and the Dutch Finance Minister said a selective default for Greece was no longer being excluded.  

 "Italy and Spain have been thrown into the mix and they are far bigger in magnitude than Greece, Ireland and Portugal. This could be a true systemic crisis," said Andrew Lim, analyst at Espirito Santo in London.         more

   

Euro pares losses vs dollar, still down on day

June 2011

 

The euro pared losses against the dollar on Thursday after the International Energy Agency said it would release 60 million barrels of oil stocks, though traders said the dollar looked likely to hold its gains in the short run.

 The euro rose to $1.4180 EUR from around $1.4155 but was still down 1.3 percent on the day.

 The U.S. Department of Energy said it would contribute to the oil stock release to make up for the loss of supply from Libya and other countries.

 "It could be a signal of the overall level of concern about a slower global economy," said Omer Esiner of Commonwealth Foreign Exchange.

 "We're seeing the euro pare some losses, but in the long run, if anything, lower oil prices should be a euro negative as it has been energy and food prices that are driving euro zone inflation," he added. "This may be a knee-jerk, risk-positive reaction." more

 

 

   

Traders bet on positive outcome, but gains limited

June 2011

The euro rose on Tuesday as investors bet Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou would survive a confidence vote crucial in helping the country avert a debt default.

 Traders were wary of holding short euro positions going into the parliamentary vote due later in the day, and analysts saw only short-lived boost if it is passed as Greece must also vote on new austerity measures on June 28.

 The euro EUR was up 0.3 percent at $1.4355, with offers reported around $1.4380-85. It was expected to face stiff resistance ahead of $1.4500, with the 55-day moving average around $1.4411 ahead of the June 15 high at $1.4451.

 The euro trimmed gains after a survey showed German investors in June took their most bearish view about the euro zone's largest economy in over two years, hurt by the Greek debt crisis and indicators of softer activity ahead

 "We should see cautious trading ahead of the Greek vote and if it is passed euro/dollar should react positively," said Roberto Mialich, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan, who expected gains to be capped below $1.4450. more

 

   

Euro drops below $1.45 after Trichet comments

June 2011

The euro extended losses against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said "strong vigilance" is warranted to curb inflation.

 Market participants, however, said the euro fell because a July rate hike has already been priced in and investors are now taking profits on the currency's gains racked up ahead of Trichet's comments.

 The euro hit a session low at $1.44788 on trading platform EBS and was last at $1.44880, down 0.6 percent on the day.

 For the past few years, investors have come to view the words "strong vigilance" as Trichet's way of signaling an impending rate hike the following month. more

 

   

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