After the U.S. dollar corrected some of its gains yesterday, a new trading day, packed with significant ?economic publications is ahead. Most attention should be given to the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment ?Change, which attempts to estimate Friday's release of Non-Farm Payrolls. Current expectations are for a ?positive result, will the dollar erase yesterday's losses??

Summary

USD - Dollar Weakens Despite Positive Consumer Confidence Report

EUR - Euro Strengthens On Positive Global Data

JPY - Yen Continues To Strengthen Vs. The Majors

OIL - Crude Oil Drops To $71.52 a Barrel

forex daily market | forex trend | forex analysis | forex news | daily forex analysis | technical news | technical analysis | USD | non farm | us | adp | employment | change | payrolls | Friday | release | expectations | positive | results

The Japanese yen made another bullish move against the majors as the steps taken by the Bank of Japan to weaken the yen only served to increase traders' resolve to increase bullish bets on the Japanese currency.

Summary

USD - Dollar Stronger Following Lower Equities

EUR - Euro Weaker on Light Volume

JPY - Yen Continues to Strengthen Despite BOJ Easing

OIL - Crude Oil Snaps 3-day Win Streak

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The US Prelim GDP, to be released at 12:30 GMT, is the primary publication today that is set to determine the level of the US dollar. The other main release that are is to dominate forex trading, especially for currencies, is the publication of the British Revised GDP at 8:30 GMT. Traders are also advised to follow Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at 14:00 GMT. This speech is very likely carry a higher than usual impact on Dollar volatility.

Summary

USD - Dollar Falls on Increased Risk Appetite

EUR - EUR Rises on Gains in European Shares

JPY - Safe-Haven Yen Climbs vs. Rivals

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Rises above $73 a Barrel

Forex Market Trends

Economic News

USD

The US dollar fell against most of its major currencies on Thursday, as gains in stocks and commodities prompted investors to wade into riskier currency trades. By yesterday's close, the USD fell against the CHF, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.0240. The dollar experienced similar behavior against the EUR and closed at 1.2720.

In addition, a slide in new US home sales and weak durable goods orders highlighted weakness in the US economy, but analysts said that such data has failed to stoke safe-haven demand for the dollar, as it did earlier in the month.

Another leading indicator released yesterday was US unemployment claims. This number handedly beat last week's results but failed to provide strength to the dollar as investors may be waiting for key data due to be released today to implement their trading strategies.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the US is the Prelim GDP at 12:30 GMT. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the USD in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at 14:00 GMT. This speech is very likely to impact dollar volatility. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the dollar going into next week's trading.

EUR

The EUR rose on Thursday as early gains in European shares, following a climb on Wall Street, indicated improving demand for riskier assets. As a result, the EUR hit a session high against the dollar at around 1.2745 before pulling back to around $1.2720. The 16-nation single currency experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 0.8190.

European shares rose 0.8%, clawing back from a five-week low on forecast-beating results, although gains were capped after US data on Thursday raised concerns the world's biggest economy risks sliding back into recession. That shift, just getting underway, could take the shine off the soaring EUR in the coming months.

Sentiment in the euro zone's regional economy has brightened in the past week following better-than-expected news. The EUR is showing signs of resilience even though there was volatility throughout non-euro crosses. It will be crucial for traders to identify how the preceding economic indicators from the US, European and Japanese economies will affect their positions.

JPY

The Japanese yen has strengthened against most of its major counterparts, continuing to prove that for the time being this is the solid currency that traders can rely on to provide them with steady profits. The yen extended gains versus the dollar on Thursday, to trade above 84.40 amid a broad sell-off in the USD. The JPY also saw bullishness against the EUR and closed at 107.30.

Investors worry about the rise in the JPY as it makes Japanese products less competitive abroad and hurts the value of overseas sales when translated back into the Japanese currency. With steady gains, primarily against the dollar, much of the yen's bullish movement could be contributed to the repatriation of overseas earnings by Japanese companies into the local economy. This has had a positive effect on major JPY currency pairings, as the rising turmoil in the market is leading to more investment in the Japanese currency.

Crude Oil

Oil prices extended gains to rise above $73 a barrel Thursday, as regional stock markets advanced and recent sharp losses in crude drew more buyers. Crude has fallen about 11.5% from around $82 a barrel early this month as more evidence of a slowing US economy suggested that demand for oil and gas would remain sluggish.

In addition, a weaker US dollar tends to boost the price of dollar-priced commodities as it lowers the price to holders of other currencies and reduces the value of the oil producers receive.

Technical News

EUR/USD

This pair appears to be providing mixed signals today. The shorter time frames are floating in neutral territory, giving no clear indication. The daily chart shows the price just exiting the over-sold territory on the RSI and Stochastic, while the weekly chart has what appears to be a recent bearish cross on the Stochastic (slow) and is now descending lower. Waiting for a clearer sign of direction may be wise today.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair has recently entered the over-sold territory on the hourly RSI, and seems to be just exiting the over-sold territory on the daily RSI. These notions, combined with a recent bullish cross on the hourly Stochastic (slow), seem to suggest that going long would be a reasonable tactic today.

USD/JPY

This pair continues to float within a distinct, long-term bearish channel. The weekly chart has begun to provide hints that the pair may correct upwards in the near future, however. The weekly RSI has the price sitting just on the border of the over-sold territory. The weekly Stochastic (slow) shows the same thing. This pair may be preparing for an upward movement, but for now the down-trend remains dominant.

USD/CHF

The price on the USD/CHF has recently entered the over-sold region of the daily chart's RSI and may experience upward pressure in the near future as a result. This pair's weekly chart also has the pair in the over-sold territory, and shows fresh bullish crosses on the Stochastic (slow), both of which support the notion of an impending upward movement. Going long may not be a bad choice today.

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EVENTS

·         EMU German IFO is expected to remain stable

·         US Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise by 3%

·         US New Home Sales are expected to remain flat

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A downgrade of Ireland's sovereign debt rating late Tuesday further roiled foreign exchange markets already agitated by dismal U.S. housing sales. The Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded Ireland's credit rating late Tuesday on concerns about the cost of bailing out the country's ailing banks.

Summary

USD - U.S Dollar Extends Losses

EUR - Euro Hits New Lows vs. the Dollar and the Yen

JPY - Yen Rises Broadly on Global Risk Aversion

Crude Oil - Oil Rebounds with U.S. Durable Goods Data Ahead

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After hitting a three month high against the U.S. dollar in trading yesterday, the euro took some slight losses last night, falling some 30 pips against the greenback. The overall trend for EUR/USD is still up, especially ahead of the U.S. Advance GDP figure, which is forecasted to show a slight decrease from the previous report.

Summary

USD - Dollar Manages Slight Gains, But Remains Low Overall

EUR - EUR Records Gains on USD, Losses Against JPY and CHF

JPY - Safe Haven Yen Climbs Vs. Rivals

OIL - Crude Oil Jumps in Overnight Trading

market | trend | fundamental | technical | analysis | eur | USD | gdp | forecast | yen | oil

The Dollar appreciated against the most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, as a drop in U.S. consumer sentiment to a five-month low cut risk appetite. Yesterday, the CB Consumer Confidence index for July fell to 50.4, below its expected reading of 51.3, as Americans become increasingly concerned over the stability of their jobs and their wages.  Meanwhile, a separate report showed that home prices rose more than predicted in May as a government tax credit underpinned sales.

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The U.S. Dollar advanced on Wednesday, gaining 1% against the Japanese Yen and pushing the EUR back under $1.30, after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected, pressuring equities lower and reducing investors' appetite for risky assets.

Summary

USD - Dollar Rises on Demand for Greenback's Safety

EUR - EUR Erases Gains; Slips Below $1.30 level

JPY - Yen Rises on Safety Demand

Crude Oil - Oil Falls a 2nd Day after Consumer Confidence Drops

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After a long time waiting, the Euro-Zone's famous Bank Stress Tests results were finally published on Friday evening. The results failed to reassure investors regarding the stability of the European banking system as analysts claimed that the test weren't strict enough. As this week begins, the reliability of the tests will remain the main topic. Will it eventually boost the Euro?

Summary

USD - The Dollar Ends A Volatile Trading Week Following Mixed Data from the U.S.

EUR - Stress Tests Fail to Ease Investors' Concerns from a Possible Debt Crisis

JPY - Yen Weakens Against the Majors

OIL - Crude Oil Prices Consolidates Around $79 a Barrel

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Both the euro and British pound fell against the safe haven currencies yesterday, following a speech from FED Chairman Bernanke which caste doubt over the pace of the global economic recovery. While the euro has traded steadily against the U.S. dollar in overnight trading, it continues to fall against the yen.

Summary

USD - USD Sees Moderate Gains Following Return to Risk Aversion

EUR - Euro Breaks its Bullish Streak. Falls Against Yen

JPY - Yen Soars Against Majors as Risk Aversion Returns

OIL - Oil Prices Tumble Following Surprise Increase in Reserves

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The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen throughout morning trading today, following a drop in risk taking ahead of a key announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Investors are cautiously awaiting a decision on whether the BOJ will intervene to limit yen growth. Japan is an export driven economy, meaning a strong yen limits the volume the country is able to sell. USD/JPY, currently trading around the 86.85 level, is still fairly close to the 7-month low the pair hit last week. The greenback appears to be fairing slightly better against the euro. EUR/USD has dropped some 100 pips since this morning, and is currently trading around the 1.2900 level.

In addition to the BOJ statement, traders will want to pay attention to the U.S. Building Permits report at 12:30 GMT as well as the Bank of Canada Rate Statement at 13:00 GMT. The U.S. economy has seen a string of negative news events over the last few weeks. Should the new building permits number come in above the forecasted 0.57M, the greenback could stage an afternoon rally against the yen. Analysts are predicting the Bank of Canada to raise overnight rates from 0.50% to 0.75%. If true, the loonie will likely see some gains against its main counterparts in afternoon and evening trading.

Dollar and Euro Strengthen Despite Negative News

In a light trading day, the dollar was higher against most of the majors, with the lone exception being the euro. Risk aversion was lower as traders shrugged off the downgrade of Ireland's credit rating as U.S. equities finished higher despite negative housing data from the U.S. economy.

Summary

USD - Greenback Rises with Equities

EUR - Moody's Downgrades Ireland's Sovereign Debt

JPY - Potential Intervention by the Bank of Japan?

Crude Oil - Spot Crude Oil Flirts with 200-Day Moving Average

market | trend | fundamental | technical | analysis | currency | boj | statement | dollar | bank of japan | building permits | report | Canada rate

The U.S. Core CPI is the primary publication today that is set to determine the level of the dollar when the report is released at 12:30 GMT. The other main releases that are set to dominate forex trading, especially for currencies such as the dollar and euro is the publication of the U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases and Prelim Consumer Sentiment at 13:00 GMT and 13:55 GMT respectively. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following these vital announcements.

Summary

USD - USD Falls on Negative Economic Data

EUR - EUR/USD Hits 2-Month High

JPY - Yen Experiences Mixed Results against Major Currencies

OIL - Oil Prices Fall Based on Weak U.S. Data

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Due to renewed concerns regarding the Euro-Zone's debt crisis and due to the beginning of earning season in the U.S, the Dollar slightly strengthened against the Euro yesterday. However, what will determine the direction of the Dollar today is likely to be the economic data which is expected from the U.S. and the Euro-Zone, especially the U.S. Trade Balance report. Will the Dollar see another day of rising trend?

Summary

USD - Dollar Strengthens As Second-Quarter Earnings Season Begins

EUR - Euro Tumbles on Concerns Stress Tests Won't Ease Investors

JPY - Yen Rises as Risk Aversion Increases

OIL - Crude Oil Drops To $75.50 a Barrel

season | earnings | economic data | debt | crisis | euro | dollar | support | report | balance | trade | us | currency | analysis | technical | fundamental | trend | market

The 1-0 over-time victory of Spain over the Netherlands in yesterday's World Cup Final has generated an interesting question among market analysts. Does this victory put optimism and positive sentiment back into Spain's crumbling economy? Can it boost short-term growth enough to add further momentum to the euro's latest gains against its primary rivals?

Summary

USD - USD Sinking Under Weight of Risk Appetite

EUR - Does Spain's Victory in the World Cup Help the EUR?

JPY - Kan's Democratic Party Defeat Saps JPY Strength

OIL - Chinese Imports and Weak USD Boost Oil above $76

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Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence report. This indicator always leads to extreme market volatility for the major currency pairs. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following this vital announcement at 14:00 GMT.

Summary

USD - USD Rises against EUR on Sign of Strengthening Economic Recovery

EUR - EUR Weakens to a 1 1/2-Year against the Pound

JPY - Yen Sees Mix Results against the Majors

Crude Oil - Oil Falls below $78.50

Forex | daily market trend | analysis | news | fundamental | technical | USD | eur | economic recovery | weak | pound | consumer confidence report | us | annoucement

Analysts have begun to make positive statements regarding China's latest announcement that it may consider an easing of the rigidness of their monetary policy. This could result in the Chinese yuan being allowed to appreciate normally and boost risk appetite and market optimism in regards to a speedier recovery. It appears traders are scanning the horizon for a silver lining and China is believed to have come to the rescue, finally. But has it?

Summary

USD - Will China's Latest Move Kick-Start a Global Recovery?

EUR - EUR in Recovery as Risk Appetite Gets Boost from China

JPY - Will New Japanese PM Respond to China with a De-Valuation?

OIL - Crude Prices in Appreciation on Boosted Demand and Weak USD

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After several weeks in which the Dollar appreciated repeatedly against the Euro, the Euro is showing its first signs of recovery. The rising risk appetite in the market is the main reason for the strengthening Euro, but will it continue?

Summary

USD - Dollar Weakens As Risk Appetite Soars

EUR - Euro Rallies as Stocks Continue To Rise

JPY - Yen Drops against the Majors; BOJ Leaves Rates At 0.10%

OIL - Crude Oil Rises Above $77 a Barrel

Forex | daily market trend | analysis | news | fundamental | technical | euro | dollar | risk appetite | signs of recovery | market | boj | rates | crude oil

After a receiving a slight boost following comments from Fed chairman Bernanke yesterday, the Euro largely reversed its gains in overnight trading versus the U.S. Dollar and Yen. Investors appear to be waiting on news from a meeting today at the European Central Bank as to whether more help will be provided to debt ridden Euro-zone countries.

Summary

USD - Dollar Improves as Investors Return to Risk Aversion

EUR - EUR Reverses Gains, Awaits News From ECB Meeting

JPY - Safe Haven Yen Continues to Rally Against Its Rivals

Crude Oil - Crude Corrects Itself After Major Gains Yesterday

Forex | daily market trend | analysis | news | fundamental | technical | fed | chairman | Bernanke | dollar | yen | European | central bank | euro zone | countries | debt

The EUR pairs rose from Friday's lows, particularly against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, despite the continued slide in global equities. The EUR/USD finished the day higher despite a trading day that was influenced by reduced risk taking. Global equities were lower across the board with the DAX down 0.57% and the S&P 500 lower by 1.35%. Most of the gains in the EUR/USD, however, can be contributed to profit taking from Friday's trading session.

Summary

USD - Dollar Pares Losses on Slide in US Equities

EUR - EUR Comes Off Low vs. USD

JPY - Yen Rises in Late Trading

Crude Oil - Slow Growth and European Fiscal Concerns Weigh on Oil

Forex | daily market trend | analysis | news | fundamental | technical | euro | us dollar | yen | risk taking | global equities | DAX | S&P | fiscal concerns

Continuing market uncertainty and Euro declines helped support Gold prices as investors turn to the metal as an alternative safe haven investment. Gold levels were further supported by positive economic data from the U.S on the one hand and manufacturing concerns from China on the other. Chinese growth concerns are adding to the uncertainty regarding the global economic recovery, pushing investors to the metal as an alternative investment.

Summary

USD - USD Remains Strong as Euro-Zone Uncertainty Persists

EUR - EUR Recovers from a 4 year Low

JPY - JPY Declines as Prime Minister Resigns

Crude Oil - Crude Falls on Concerns Regarding Global Economic Recovery

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